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Initial powerful losses in Cable Tuesday extended the two preceding day’s decline but these losses were entirely reversed by the close. But the bounce was able to only reverse half of Monday’s net downside and some selling has returned in Asia. It is the downside rejection, however, that is assessed as the key feature. Therefore our call [...]
Stock and commodity markets continue to focus on the impact of weak global growth conditions and the EU debt crisis. The dollar moved back to its strongest levels in months benefitting from the Swiss currency peg, worries ahead of the 9/11 ten year anniversary and an European Central Bank more concerned about weak growth than [...]
The eagerly-awaited Obama and Bernanke speeches supported equity markets this past week but turned out to be very much non-events. Attention of traders will remain on the next FOMC meeting on the 21st September. Meanwhile, European problems still loom and the Greek debt rollover should come to some kind of conclusion Friday, or over the [...]
What a dramatic week for the Swiss franc. Much has been written over the last few days on the Swiss National Bank’s actions, pushing EURCHF spot from the 1.1200 all the way to where we are now (1.2150), firmly above the 1.2000 floor. In our previous article, we highlighted the implied volatility price action during [...]
The charts below are for each of the G10 currencies versus an evenly weighted basket of the remainder of their G10 peers. The charts are small (as we work on updating the blog to allow links to larger graphics), but they nonetheless do cover quite a bit of ground – 2500 data points for each [...]
ATM VOLATILITIES Pair Spot 1w 1m 3m 6m 1y EURUSD 1.3837 (1.49%) 15 (+0.2) 14.9 (+0.75) 15.2 (+0.45) 15.2 (+0.4) 15.2 (+0.3) USDJPY 77.72 (-0.66%) 11.1 (+0.3) 10.45 (+0) 10.85 (+0.05) 11.2 (-0.05) 12.25 (+0) GBPUSD 1.5967 (0.33%) 11 (+0) 11.45 (-0.1) 12.05 (-0.05) 12.35 (-0.05) 12.55 (-0.05) AUDUSD 1.0538 (0.86%) 12.8 (-0.4) 14.25 (+0.35) [...]
After a momentous move last week and early this week, markets are violently churning and wondering what to do next. It’s tough to find a catalyst that will take us out of this state of affairs, but the unknowns are known. The leading headlines late yesterday and earlier today are related to the ban of [...]
Slowing global trade, weak economic figures and a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone (that just does not want to go away) have understandably led to volatile markets in recent times. Is it possible that the weakness in the U.S. has been overstated? Abysmal 2Q GDP report The theatrics on the part of Congress threatened [...]
Elevated volatility across all major asset classes continued this week as the debt crisis on either side of the Atlantic, combined with slowing economic activity, left everyone on the edge. The market is currently trying to work out whether some economies will move back into a double dip recession which will be bad news in [...]
High frequency trading hedge funds were the stars of the volatility fireworks in this past week. The sheer explosion of volumes, the price action and the relentless rumour-mongering in a traditionally slow trading period are a trademark of this bunch. The resulting short-term ban on short selling introduced by France, Italy, Spain and Belgium may [...]