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TODAY’S PIA FIRST CALL

thanhlangtu — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 08:05:25 +0000

Initial powerful losses in Cable Tuesday extended the two preceding day’s decline but these losses were entirely reversed by the close. But the bounce was able to only reverse half of Monday’s net downside and some selling has returned in Asia. It is the downside rejection, however, that is assessed as the key feature. Therefore our call is Bullish above 1.5400.

The immediate objective is 1.5474 with a move beyond that point targeting 1.5497, yesterday’s peak, or even towards this week’s open of 1.5550.

Selling through 1.5400 is the risk to this call as it signals that selling pressure is greater than currently assessed. The market should then decline to 1.5372, then yesterday’s base of 1.5341.

source from: tradingfloor

Big picture G10 currency charts

thanhlangtu — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 16:19:47 +0000

The charts below are for each of the G10 currencies versus an evenly weighted basket of the remainder of their G10 peers. The charts are small (as we work on updating the blog to allow links to larger graphics), but they nonetheless do cover quite a bit of ground – 2500 data points for each in fact, which hopefully gives an interesting perspective. Each of the time series starts at indexed 100 as of early February 2002. (The start point of the index changes with every refresh of the charts on a rolling basis.)

Note that the charts were cut before the last leg of the action in the early US session after the news that Stark will resign from the ECB (rumored because of disagreements on bond buying) and on news ECB will back off on penalty rates for banks accessing emergency facilities.

USD

The US dollar has been dropping forever – note that while the dollar index crossed the 200-day moving average, the USD/G10 basket has not yet crossed this important level, though it is trading at the highest level in months and may be confirming a transition to a bullish trend after the recent basing action and loss of downside momentum.

EUR

How ironic is it that, as the EU is experiencing its worst existential crisis to date, the Euro is back close to its lowest levels in years….which are also the lowest levels since the Euro was launched amid intense skepticism over the entire idea of a single currency back in 2002.

JPY

The JPY remains resilient and relatively strong – but will likely only be so as long as rates remain absurdly low and/or the BoJ and Japanese government steal a page from the SNB’s book on the intervention front

GBP

GBP is experiencing a bit of a revival on Euro misery and as its down trend has been losing steam for a long time. Could the market be getting too complacent on further GBP weakness?

CHF

The magnitude of the run-up and the subsequent reversal is breathtaking, but leaves us, amazingly, still poised above the 200-day moving average! There’s a lot more room for franc weakness if the SNB’s intervention project succeeds.

AUD

AUD is extremely overvalued if the Asian growth story in any way derails. The focus has been intense on Europe, but many risk appetite signals are flashing around the world, which are most often associated with Aussie downside. Aussie hasn’t been garnering sufficient notice.

CAD

CAD has been a relatively low beta currency over the years relative to some of its peers. It is generally out of favor now, but could put up a fight or at least avoid broad weakness if the US economy and USD prove stronger than the market is currently expecting.

NZD

The NZD bull market has enjoyed an Indian summer, but it may fade on the potential for an Asian hiccup and if the post NZ earthquake GDP bump fades in the months ahead.

SEK

The krona is gaining favor as a safe haven from Euro turmoil. It may rally passively for a while, but historically has a hard time if its export markets are threatened.

NOK

NOK is very credible as a safe haven from a fundamental standpoint and has room to rally further, but what point does the Norges Bank begin to rattle it saber when EURNOK is already at almost decadal lows?

source from: tradingfloor

Impending Bearishness for GBP/USD

admin — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 14:53:42 +0000

The GBP/USD cross has experienced a bullish trend for the past day. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end, as described below. Forex traders can take advantage of this imminent downward movement by entering short positions at an excellent entry price.

• The technical indictors used are the Slow Stochastic, Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Williams Percent Range.

• Point 1: Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals that the price of this pair currently floats in the over-bought territory, indicating downward pressure.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bearish cross, signaling that the next move may be in a downward direction.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Range also supports the downward direction.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart

source: forexyard.com