EUR/USD: The market has finally taken out the key October lows at 1.3145 to confirm a lower top by 1.3550 and open the next downside extension towards the 2011 lows from January at 1.2870. Daily studies are however looking a little stretched and at this point we could see some corrective action before the market resumes its downward trajectory. Look for any rallies to be well capped in the 1.3300 area from where the next lower top will be sought out.

source form: dailyfx

GBP/USD:Rallies have been very well capped ahead of 1.5800 and it looks as though a lower top has now been carved out by 1.5780 ahead of the next major downside extension back towards the October lows at 1.5270. Key support comes in by 1.5400 and a daily close below this level will be required to confirm bias and accelerate declines. Ultimately, only back above 1.5780 would negate bearish outlook and give reason for pause.

source form: dailyfx

USD/JPY:The market has managed to successfully hold above the bottom of the daily Ichimoku cloud to further strengthen our constructive outlook and we look for the formation of a inter-day higher low by 76.55 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually through the recent multi-day highs by 79.55. Ultimately, only a close back below the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud would negate outlook and give reason for pause, while a daily close back above 78.30 accelerates.

source form: dailyfx

UK BRC Sales
The UK Like-for-Like sales number for February were very weak (though overall sales did rise +1.1% YoY) and suggests rather weak end demand from consumer. This makes sense in light of the austerity descending on the British population since the first of the year. The weak demand wasn’t as evident in January due to pent up demand from historically disruptive winter weather that kept people pinned up in their homes in December. Continued weak demand will be an interesting possible theme for the UK in coming months.

Riksbank
The Swedish Krona caught a bit of a bid today despite generally souring risk markets and despite dovish talk from the Riksbank Deputy Governor Svensson. He was out arguing for a “lower repo rate path” and for a focus on employment as well as inflation. Sounds like Mr. Svensson needs to join the Bernanke Fed. Another Riksbank member is out speaking later today.

Chart: EURUSD
EURUSD is reversing after its extensive grind higher all the way from the . So far, we can only speak of an orderly consolidation. The key is whether the sell-off cuts deeply through the 1.3860 area support provided by the previous high, a move that would weaken the uptrend. Note that the recent test above 1.40 just barely took out a falling trendline – a tease that proved a false break. Round numbers have often been important in EURUSD’s history and that 1.40 level remains the key upside resistance for now as we inch close to the EU summit later this month.

Chart: AUDUSD
The technical situation in AUDUSD is becoming a farce, with an ever-shrinking range between 1.02 and higher and higher lows. The nominal technical formation is an ascending triangle, normally considered a bullish formation, but the longer the pair dallies, ironically, the weaker the formation becomes as an indicator of future direction. Parity is the key downside support beyond the tactical 1.0075 level.

Chart: AUDNZD
A large scale reversal in AUDNZD, which shows the most significant crack in the uptrend in over a month. This may be the beginning of the end of the uptrend – as valuation here is extreme and there is only so much an earthquake can do to a country’s currency. Longer term fair value lies closer to 1.30 if not 1.25 for the pair.

Looking ahead
The USD has followed through a bit stronger today, a development presaged by yesterday’s neat technical reversal in key USD crosses. The question now is whether we follow through and move back through more strategic resistance levels for the greenback. To take three USD pairs, that would be on the order of 1.3860 in EURUSD, parity in AUDUSD and 1.6000 in GBPUSD.  Certainly from a contrarian perspective, there are grounds for further USD strength as USD shorts are out there in record swarms by some measures. Again (as we discussed yesterday), a continued rally in fixed income (which should tend to favor the USD in interest rate spreads), a easing off of crude oil prices and another couple of percent of downside for equities could prove powerful medicine for the greenback in coming days.

For USDJPY, we await today’s 3-year auction with interest. Expectations are relatively low after last month saw a very anemic auction despite relatively high yields (if you can call 1.25% a high yield – but that was higher than the 0.45% the 3-year debt was yielding around the time of Bernanke’s official QE2 announcement). The 3-year debt is yielding about the same now as it was at last month’s auction – so this will be an interesting one to see whether recent events and disruptions in equity markets see a stronger bid coming into the market.

The rest of the week’s calendar is fairly heavy for Australia, with Consumer Confidence and Home loan data tonight, and the employment report tomorrow night. Seems like by this time next week, we are either trading above 1.0200 or below parity.

source from: tradingfloor

The dollar continued its bearish trend against the major currencies today due to speculations that the Federal Reserve will debase the greenback by advancing purchases of government debt to in order to support the economic recovery. Later on the dollar erased some of its losses following better than expected employment data from the U.S. The weekly Unemployment Claims report showed that applications for U.S. unemployment insurance unexpectedly dropped last week to its lowest level in three months. Jobless claims fell to 445,000, beating expectations for 454,000 claims for unemployment benefits. In general it appears that as long as speculations regarding further stimulus from the Fed take place, the dollar has potential to drop even further, especially against the euro and the yen.

As for today, the most exciting trading day of the month is expected as the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls release is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. This report measures the change in the number of employed people during September. In normal times this report has an unusual effect on the market due to its early release. However, considering the fragile condition of the U.S. labor sector, today’s release is likely to have an enhanced impact on the national currency.

forexyard.com

• The technical indicators that are used are the Williams Percent Range and Slow Stochastic.

• Point 1: There is a “doji” candlestick that has formed on the chart, indicating that a reversal should take place.

• Point 2: The Slow Stochastic indicates a bullish cross, signaling that the next move may be in an upward direction.

• Point 3: The Williams Percent Range indicates that the price of this cross currently floats in the oversold territory, signaling upward pressure.

USD/NOK 4-Hour Chart

source:  forexyard.com

However, in the coming few hours, the leading currencies, such as the GBP/USD cross will be under much pressure from the Dollar, as a string of data is set to be released from the U.S. At 13:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity and the Prelim Unit Labor Costs will all be published simultaneously from the U.S. Surrounding these releases; there will be very high volatility in the forex market. Thus to open big positions in the U.S. Dollar now will be the wisest decision that you make this week.

source:  forexyard.com

USD/JPY Hourly Chart

source:  forexyard.com

The European currency’s strength was in line with other global currencies that took advantage of renewed risk appetite that suggested U.S. interest rates will stay low for some time; particularly after last week’s soft U.S. jobs data

source:  forexyard.com

The greenback managed a brief rally off Monday’s lows after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank is attentive to changes in the currency. The USD immediately jumped off the day’s lows with investors finding it unusual for a Fed chairman to talk on the Dollar. A temporary spike in the U.S. currency after the Fed chief’s comments helped it offset some of its session losses to the EUR but was quickly reversed. The USD turned negative as the Fed’s Chairman failed to convince investors that the U.S. would take action to shore up the greenback.

In Tuesday trading the U.S dollar was slightly up versus majors after the previous session’s sharp drop, supported by waning risk appetite as most Asian stock markets slumped. The U.S currency remained under pressure as U.S. equities advanced before Industrial production report which probably rose for a 4th consecutive month in October, signaling manufacturing is leading the rebound in U.S economy. The positive data suggests improvement in the U.S. economy and may embolden investors to move toward riskier assets and away from the relative safe-haven status of the greenback.

source:  forexyard.com